To understand omicron better, scientists are trying to figure out how it emerged. “We really don’t know if omicron is out-competing delta at all or whether it’s become the dominant strain in a few places just due to chance,” he said. where that strong delta variant is causing more than 99% of current COVID-19 cases, said Louis Mansky, director of the Institute for Molecular Virology at the University of Minnesota.Įven in certain parts of South Africa, a reported jump in omicron-caused cases may not indicate the mutant is more contagious than delta, Lemieux said. It’s unclear how omicron would compete in a place like the U.S. Then delta hit, far more contagious than alpha. The alpha variant that emerged about a year ago was more transmissible than the virus that started the pandemic. And while it already has been diagnosed in numerous countries just days after its discovery was announced, it’s also too soon to know how contagious it is. Scientists have little data yet on whether omicron causes more severe disease than other variants. “We want to take this seriously because of the combination of mutations, but we don’t want to panic and we don’t want to overreact as well until we really learn more about this virus.” “It’s that combination of potential increased transmissibility and ability - potential ability - to escape our immune system that has everyone worried.” William Moss of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. Most “are really unique to this virus,” said Dr. But they’ve never seen this particular constellation of changes. Scientists recognize a few mutations from earlier variants that were more contagious or a bit resistant to vaccination. Possibly 30 are in a key place, the spike protein that lets the virus attach to human cells. Omicron raised alarm because of its sheer number of mutations, more than prior variants had. Jacob Lemieux, who monitors variants for a research collaboration led by Harvard Medical School. “It’s hard to know: Have we just simply caught up to the reality and now the world is reacting with the appropriate speed as variants emerge?” asked Dr. This time an early warning from South Africa and Botswana might have offered important head start. Up to now, the world has been slow to react to each coronavirus curveball. Omicron might not turn out “as bad as we’re perhaps imagining it could be but treating it as such at the moment I think is entirely appropriate,” he said. “Pretty much the right level of freaking out,” is how Trevor Bedford, who studies evolution of the coronavirus at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, characterized health experts’ reactions. Will it spread even faster than the already extra-contagious delta variant? Does it make people sicker? Does it evade vaccines’ protection or reinfect survivors? There are lots of guesses but little hard evidence as scientists race to find answers amid scrutiny from an anxious public.
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